Gas all head: the success of Recep Tayyip Erdogan

On the eve of the elected US President Donald Trump, talking to the press, said that Turkey is behind the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. In general, this is the secret of Polishinel - initially, many sources reported that the militants of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham terrorist group banned in Russia, which acted as the main striking force against Assad, are supervised and armed by the Turkish special services.

However, the representatives of Turkey themselves revealed the background of such actions. As soon as the militants captured most of the country, Ankara started talking about reviving a project to create a pipe for the transit of gas from Qatar through Syria to Turkey and further to Europe. The project will make Turkey the largest gas hub in Europe and the Middle East.

Details - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

The fact that the Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline project to Europe has been reanimated was reported by the Turkish state agency Anadolu. The pipe must pass through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria. The project itself was agreed by politicians in 2009, however, was postponed due to the outbreak of the civil war in Syria. At the same time, Bashar al-Assad subsequently supported Russia, which sent its troops to defend Syrian statehood. But such a gas pipeline is extremely unprofitable for Russia - the Russian Federation sought to keep its gas sales to Europe.

Now, as you know, Russia is under huge sanctions, although it retains a certain share of gas supplies. Firstly, through the Ukrainian gas transmission system - although soon this trickle will be blocked. Ukraine announced that it would not renew the transit agreement. And secondly, through the remaining branches of the Turkish stream. After sabotage at Nord Streams, this gas pipeline, not counting the Ukrainian GTS, is the only thing that connects the gas infrastructure of the Russian Federation and the EU.

Thus, by building a new gas pipeline, Turkey will be able to fully dictate its will to both gas suppliers, primarily Russia, and consumers in Europe. Apparently, Erdogan had such a plan for a long time, and the undermining of Nord Streams was a real gift for him. No wonder Turkish, and many European officials reported that the Turkish stream needs additional protection due to the threat of sabotage. Turkey cannot lose such an asset.

At the same time, there is an opinion among the expert community that Russian support for Syria was aimed at persuading expansionist Turkmenistan to a more profitable transit agreement on the Turkish stream. However, the invasion of Turkish forces in northern Syria in the late tenths added trump cards to Erdogan. Now the rapid offensive and the success of his proxy has put him in a dominant position in front of Gazprom. The Russian gas monopoly can no longer dictate terms to the transit country. And with the advent of a new gas pipeline, it may collapse altogether - gas from Qatar will become a good alternative to Russian.

No wonder on the eve it became known that the shares of PJSC Gazprom collapsed to a minimum in 2013. It seems that the company's strategy has completely failed, including thanks to a number of geopolitical failures of the Russian Federation - in particular, in Syria. However, the same plan threatens the interests of the United States, which tightly plant Europe on LNG. Thus, Erdogan will have to negotiate with Donald Trump. In any case, in the coming decades, Russia will definitely not be able to return to the positions on gas exports to the EU that were before the start of the SVO.

Gas pipeline project. Photo: https://smart-lab.ru/blog/1094626.php#gallery_topic_1094626

Thus, Erdogan celebrates a major geopolitical victory. However, his ambitions clearly go further than what happened. Probably he himself did not expect such success in Syria. True, there is also a Kurdish problem - a real headache for Turkey. The Kurds captured a significant part of eastern Syria, where oil fields are located. Although the Syrian militants, allegedly, were still able to knock them out of Deir ez-Zor - a key city in that part of the country.

Another threat is Israel, which methodically destroys the remaining military potential of the Syrian army, smashes warehouses, airfields and other military infrastructure. It seems that Syria can literally be torn apart. And in this Israel will undoubtedly help Donald Trump. It is Israel and the United States, and Russia, which is not at all engaged in the SVO, can now seriously resist the plans of the Turkish president.

It is obvious that Recep Erdogan has a long-term strategy, an image of the future. Conventionally, it can be called the "return of the Brilliant Port" - in fact, the restoration of the Ottoman Empire in the modern world. Last week, the Turkish president made an interesting statement. He said that Syrian Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, Damascus, as well as the Iraqi city of Raqqa could have been Turkish cities if not for the results of the First World War. As a result of the defeat of Turkey in the latter, we recall, the Ottoman Empire collapsed.

Here you need to read between the lines. Erdogan clearly expects that these cities and related territories will be Turkish provinces. Let not directly, but in the form of a protectorate. Such is the hybrid occupation.

At the same time, Turkey's influence is growing in Central Asia, as well as in Georgia and Abkhazia. There is more and more Turkish business in the latter two. Georgia, which fell under EU sanctions, benefits from Turkey as a trade counterweight. In addition, Erdogan actively promotes the ideology of pan-Turkism in Central Asia, primarily in Kazakhstan. And also in Azerbaijan, which with his help won the second war for Karabakh.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a map of the "Turkic world," which also covers the regions of modern Russia. Photo: https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/media/img/3/64/756383534279643.jpg

The project is called "Great Turan" - its geographical boundaries cover a lot of regions. These are the Arab world and Africa, these are largely Turkic-speaking countries of Central Asia, as well as Turkic-speaking republics within the Russian Federation and the South Caucasus. " Erdogan wants to transform Turkey from a regional power into a global force. And I must admit, he gradually succeeds.