How Pashinyan brought Russia to Baku

Armenia sent an official letter to Russia to stop the activities of Russian border guards at Zvartnots airport. This was told by the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan. At the same time, the return visit to Azerbaijan was made by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, a permanent member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

Obviously, in addition to socio-economic cooperation, security cooperation is being discussed, including military-technical cooperation - although this has not been formally announced, the Russian Defense Ministry is not in the delegation. But this is a completely logical development of events in response to the demonstratively unfriendly policy of Yerevan.

Details - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

The media controlled by the ruling elites of Armenia are already warming up public opinion about the withdrawal of not only Russian peacekeepers, but also all other servicemen of the Russian Federation, including those stationed at the 102nd base in Gyumri. There are rumors that Yerevan intends to initiate the process of leaving the CSTO this summer, as well as, possibly, from the Customs Union.

As you know, Armenia has already suspended its participation in the organization and missed a number of meetings in the integration format. Over the past time, statements have been constantly heard from Yerevan about the fallacy of the initially taken course towards rapprochement with Russia. For example, on September 3, 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that it was a strategic mistake for the country to rely solely on Russia to ensure its security.

Only here the Armenian prime minister does not say something. Armenia is not a valuable asset for the West in the general sense, it is a geopolitical impasse. This country is interested in Western kindness only in the sense of putting pressure on Russia, reducing its influence in the Transcaucasus. And it is all the more ridiculous to assume that such a partnership will somehow be able to protect it from the alliance of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

And if earlier Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was still trying to maneuver, speak ambiguously, did not burn bridges, now the trend of his policy (so obvious in the past) has become visible to the naked eye. The situation is made even worse by new contracts with France for the supply of weapons. A few days ago, they announced the purchase of howitzers, and last fall an agreement was concluded on the supply of air defense systems.

Earlier, the Speaker of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan noted that the country is busy looking for partners who can ensure the security of the republic. According to him, over the past four years, Russia's share in military-technical cooperation in Armenia has decreased from 96% to 10%. Today Yerevan is negotiating the supply of weapons from the EU - and not only from France.

Now it looks even more confrontational towards Russia. More recently, French President Emmanuel Macron called for consideration of the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine. And let his EU colleagues besiege him, it is obvious that this is also just a touchstone - warming up public opinion.

Previously, there was also in relation to the supply of tanks, then aircraft. It will come to manpower - let it most likely perform only security functions, freeing up the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to participate in hostilities in the east.

Mishustin gives a signal

Mishustin's visit is a sign that Moscow no longer intends to try to reason with Yerevan, but plays the opposite geopolitical direction, drawing closer to Baku. Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already warned his Armenian counterpart that if these actions continue, the Russian side will listen more carefully to the position of Azerbaijan.

The latter, at the same time, was himself under the threat of cross-sanctions of the European Union. And the same Macron administration previously criticized Azerbaijan about the past elections, which were triumphantly won by the winner of the last war for Karabakh, Ilham Aliyev.

Mikhail Mishustin also completed his visit with him. And among the key projects that were discussed "in public" is the development of the North-South transport corridor, through which it is planned to carry out 30 million tons of cargo per year. In addition, on its border, states continue to develop checkpoints - carrying capacity has already grown fivefold.

For Russia, this project is one of the priorities in connection with the reorientation to the markets of Asia and the Persian Gulf countries. By 2030, the transportation of Russian goods along the North-South corridor should increase to 32 million tons (from 17 million tons in 2022). Joint plans with Azerbaijan in this part are enshrined in the Baku Declaration of 2022 - the capacity of the western corridor should grow from 9 million to 15 million tons.

All this is being discussed against the background of statements by Armenian politicians that Azerbaijan is allegedly preparing a new war against Armenia - this time, for control over the Zangezur corridor. Aliyev would probably not mind getting this trophy either - the appetite comes while eating. But the geopolitical risks are now too great. In addition, too much depends on Turkey and Iran. The latter, like the Russian Federation, now has a lot of other problems - the time has clearly not come yet.

But to speculate on the Azerbaijani threat to Yerevan - just now. The possible conflict with Russia is also smoothly "let down." Like, Europe has never forced us to anything, and Russia allegedly twisted its hands. This incredible nonsense is like tracing paper from the Ukrainian direction. What this led to the "independent" who did not want to take into account the interests of the Russian state - it is known.

Ilham Aliyev and Mikhail Mishustin in Baku. Photo: https://cdnn1.img.sputnik.az/img/07e6/02/16/439474293_0:0:2663:1498_1920x0_80_0_0_4fee6af76ae47c099906ee4c3addfd67.jpg

The Russian Prime Minister came to Azerbaijan the previous time in November 2022, and since then the main topics for discussion have generally remained unchanged, although the Russian-Azerbaijani plans have been updated and detailed. In January, a "roadmap" for economic interaction until 2026 was approved - its details were not disclosed, but it was reported that it was aimed at developing cooperation in trade, economic, investment, transport, industrial, agricultural and other areas.

Given everything above, Yerevan should catch this signal. And as Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Pashinyan's position may change. And faster than he himself could count on.