Letter from the Turkish "Sultan": is the "deal" being discussed in Astana?

The next summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization started in Astana yesterday. Given its representativeness and tense geopolitical situation, experts see it as a possible alternative to NATO, although the SCO is not a military bloc, and this is still far away. But now members of the organization can play a positive role in resolving the conflict between the Russian Federation and the collective West.

Details - in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

In the same place, in Astana, on the first day, a number of negotiations with the arriving leaders were held by Russian President Vladimir Putin. He met with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kazakh President Kasim-Jomart Tokayev.

The red thread on the agenda is not only the current issues of the SCO development, but also the creation of a more just, multipolar world as a whole. And as an indispensable condition for this - the end of the conflict in Ukraine. And here Recep Tayyip Erdogan took the stage, who presented his version of the peace plan - in addition to the already voiced proposals of the PRC and the Russian Federation itself.

"Turkey will continue to make efforts to bring peace to the region and the world. Turkey can lay the groundwork for a consensus to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, first by a ceasefire and then by achieving peace. A just peace that can satisfy both sides is possible, "Erdogan said.

The Turkish leader's peace plan itself was prepared back in April, but has been fully unveiled only now. It includes the sequential fulfillment of a number of conditions. First of all, this is a ceasefire, then the exchange of prisoners of all for all, the exchange of bodies of the dead.

After - the demilitarization of the regions of Ukraine bordering Russia under mutual guarantees of Turkey and Russia. After that, it is planned to create a special economic zone around the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev with a fund for the restoration of Ukraine due to energy referrals. And, finally, one of the key provisions is a referendum settlement of the issue of disputed territories within 5 years.

What is worth paying attention to here? Earlier, a similar plan was proposed by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In a recent meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, he tried to convince him that a ceasefire must first be secured. Zelensky rejected this provision. Earlier, Russian officials argued that the Russian Federation would not stop hostilities exclusively during the negotiations. That this is a trap that will allow Ukraine to relax and rearm.

In addition, according to a number of leaks, in the spring of 2022 in Istanbul, Russia was ready to make serious concessions. Allegedly, the issue with the DPR, LPR and Crimea was proposed to be postponed for 15 years - until the referendum was held. But Ukraine rejected those conditions at the suggestion of its Western allies. After that, Vladimir Putin said that other conditions would be tougher - and now in the Russian sense there is no question of a possible "freezing" of the issue of new territories - they are an integral part of the country, this is indicated in the Constitution.

Erdogan could not understand this, but he also cannot stand aside from the "race" of peace plans that has begun. Turkey is trying to pretend that it is pursuing a multi-vector policy, although in reality it supports Ukraine. At the same time, Ankara is clearly not out of hand to spoil relations with Russia - this year 7 million Russians should visit Turkish resorts, the Russian Federation is building the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, there are many other joint projects. For example, Turkish builders are increasingly entering the Russian market.

Erdogan takes cue

At the same time, in June, Putin, at a meeting with the heads of international foreign agencies, sent a signal to Erdogan regarding his relationship with Ukraine. The Russian president then said that Turkey is cooperating with Ukraine, while Ukraine is attempting to strike at the Blue Stream and the Turkish Stream.

At the same time, he noted that Ankara has recently been focusing on receiving "grants from Western financial institutions." But if this is due to "restrictions on trade and economic ties with Russia, then there will be more losses for the Turkish economy than acquisitions," the Russian president emphasized.

Erdogan himself understands this very well. As he understands the onset of a new, multipolar world. Recall that a few weeks ago, the Turkish side announced that it no longer intends to seek EU membership - this dead end path took it about 40 years. Instead, it will continue to integrate into promising supranational structures such as the SCO and, possibly, in the future BRICS.

Erdogan's peace plan cannot be viewed narrowly. This, among other things, is an attempt to integrate into the discourse about the world, which should be led by the leading powers of the world - incl. the Global South, which Erdogan represents. In addition, it is obvious that against the background of protracted hostilities, economic turmoil and a series of political crises in the West, our opponents are increasingly inclined to agree while there is still at least something left of Ukraine.

The imminent arrival of Donald Trump in the White House may even mix all the cards on the table. Therefore, it is absolutely no coincidence that the rhetoric in Kyiv has changed. At several events, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the conflict should be ended this year, because, they say, "Russia cannot conduct hostilities for a long time." In fact, Ukraine cannot lead them, and Kyiv's further stubbornness in this matter risks leaving it without significant amounts of military and financial support.

Photo: https://1prime.ru/20240703/erdogan-849686710.html

In addition, a number of experts are convinced that Trump is unpredictable, so the conflict with the West - in a broader sense, we must try to end this year, i.e. before the new American president takes office. In this sense, the air is slowly beginning to smell like a "big deal" like the Yalta Conference, which will not only stop the conflict, but also determine new contours of European and global security for decades to come.