Playing thimbles in Taiwanese

But the choice depends not only on them. The fate of a perfectly prosperous island is played by Washington politicians. Many Taiwanese suspect Washington is hiding its vested interests behind talk of democracy.

US President Joe Biden says he will defend the island in the event of an attack. Although, Chinese President Xi Jinping at a meeting with in San Francisco said that Beijing has no plans to invade Taiwan. The Chinese leader called on the United States to stop arming Taiwan and "support the peaceful reunification of China." Biden warned Xi against interfering in the upcoming elections. Details in the material of the correspondent of The Moscow Post.

The average person has to make a choice: confrontation with the support of the United States, or the status quo in the interests of development and prosperity. A survey conducted by the organization "World United Residents of Formosa for Independence" shows that the majority of voters do not want to change anything in relations with Beijing: 44.3% proposed "to maintain their current position forever," 35.8% spoke in favor of "the status quo, while moving towards independence."

Taiwan like a chip in the casino "Washington"

Defense policy and relations with the United States will be the most acute issues in the upcoming elections. The election campaign is overshadowed by the atmosphere of the coming conflict. Each of the contenders for the post of head of Taiwan promises a sad scenario to "avoid." True, there is no conflict itself yet, but the Americans and the current administration of Taiwan are repeating it tirelessly.

Last year, the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen increased mandatory military service from four months to a year from January 1, 2024. Opposition candidate Hou Yu promised to cancel this, but abandoned the idea, the atmosphere is not the same! "Expectations of conflict" are conducted from Washington, Tokyo, Brussels.

Taiwan for the United States is China's leverage. For Japan, it is part of the imperial past, a symbol of the colonial era and dominance in the region. Both of these allies depend on economic ties with the island, for both the PRC is the main economic competitor and opponent in the field of security. The European Union keeps its nose in the wind, is interested in the Indo-Pacific region.

And candidates for the presidency of Taiwan will have to answer the main question: "What will happen to the island if the conflict breaks out?" Taiwan, like the former Ukraine, has already become a bargaining chip that Washington can put in its game on "geopolitical roulette." The risks to the island are prohibitive.

Barking over the island

The current president, Tsai Ing-wen, has been teetering on the brink of supposedly sovereignty for a long time. To emphasize this, in every possible way contributed to contacts with American politicians of the highest level. Washington supported this, despite the "one China" policy and over Beijing's strong objections.

Under the constitution, Tsai Ing-wen cannot run for a third term. Lai Jing-te will run for president from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) today. He is also for sovereignty, patronage from the United States and relations with "like-minded partners."

"Lai served in the Tsai administration as vice president for four years. He attended all high-level meetings, national security meetings, "said Joseph Wu, the island's foreign minister. "Consistency will be ensured in foreign policy," assured the minister, who traveled to the Baltic countries in November.

"Consistency" will also be secured by the selection of a vice presidential nominee. Lai invited former Taipei representative to the United States Xiao Bi-hima to this post.

"I am confident that the Lai administration will continue to improve relations with Europe, Canada, Great Britain, Australia, Japan and the United States," Wu said.

Roulette game

Taiwan is also big money and modern strategically important chips and technologies. The United States intends to control all this. And if not? Then you have to bomb - such a scenario is also on the table in Washington.

Although Taiwan has "its own life," neighboring economies have long been integrated. Bilateral trade with China and Hong Kong exceeded $200 billion. These partners account for 42% of Taiwan's exports, while the US accounts for only 15% of the island's exports.

Over the past ten years, Taiwan has maintained a trade surplus through trade with the PRC and Hong Kong, in 2021 this "indicator of interdependence" reached $105 billion.

As a source of imports, mainland China and Hong Kong rank first in Taiwan with a share of 22%. The share of the United States in imports is 10%. Over the past five to six years, imports from mainland China have grown by almost 90%, and exports to China have grown by 70%.

The sanctions imposed by Washington in 2022 hit not only the production of microcircuits in the PRC, they hit Taiwanese manufacturers, which lost customers in China.

The reorientation of Taiwan to the countries of Southeast Asia and South Asia, including India, is gradually underway. In 2022, investments in all these countries totaled $5.2 billion, said the island's economy minister, Wang Mei-hua. Taiwan's investment in China has been at this level for more than one year.

Kuomintang to build islanders

Candidates from the Taiwan People's Party (TNP) and the Kuomintang, the largest opposition party, will compete for the presidency. Hou Yu and Zhao Shaokang are presidential and vice presidential candidates from the Kuomintang.

Hou is a cop turned mayor and Zhao is a commentator on conservative views. The KMT was defeated in the last two presidential elections, but won the large majority of local councils and city halls in the 2022 local elections.

Fundamental disagreements among presidential contenders include defense policy issues and attitudes toward a compromise formula known as "Consensus 1992." This is an informal agreement reached between the two sides that there is one "China," but both sides disagree on what "China" means.

The Kuomintang supports the 1992 Consensus and the idea of ​ ​ One China as the key to defusing tensions with Beijing. The KMT presidential candidate supports resuming talks with Beijing on a trade deal that would make trade in services easier.

The main idea of the Kuomintang is that war can be prevented by recognizing that Taiwan is not a separate entity from China. Closer economic ties will help reduce tensions with Beijing, the opposition said.

The Kuomintang also intend to protect the interests and independence of Taiwan, but through negotiations, consensus and compromise with the PRC. For Beijing, this is the only acceptable choice, but the Kuomintang, judging by the polls, is gaining only about 30% of the vote so far, 8-9% behind the DPP.

The young TNP has about 18% support and attempts to unite this populist party with the Kuomintang have not yet yielded results. Former Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-jie and young female MP Wu Xin-in of the Shin Kong group's business dynasty will run for the TNP.

American Shuttles and Their Goods

Visits by American politicians to Taipei, including a trip by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have heightened tensions with China. Pro-American commentators in Taiwanese media say such visits are a show of political support. Critics are confident that these are attempts to use Taiwan in Washington's interests.

A survey conducted by the Taiwan Opinion Foundation found that 61% of respondents agreed that "even if the US holds back China for its own interests, it is in Taiwan's interests," 22% said it is not in the island's interests to contain China.

Only 9.3% of respondents agreed that China was trustworthy, while 55.3% disagreed. In 2021, China was considered "reliable" by 13.5% of respondents. The "confidence score" for the United States also fell from 45% in 2021 to 34% in 2022.

At the end of November, Chen Binhua, a representative of the Taiwan Affairs Office at the State Council of the People's Republic of China, said that "Taiwan's independence" means war. " Beijing demanded that the United States not condone the "independence of Taiwan," urged not to interfere in the internal affairs of the Chinese side, to stop supporting the separatists. This was announced to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang I.

Nevertheless, the very idea that the future Taiwanese administration will be able to work constructively, not only with the West, but also with Beijing, does not find and will not find support in the United States. The Americans do not need Taiwan for prosperity, peace and security. The island is a valuable chip in another game that goes to the Washington Casino.

Photo: iz.ru