"Strategy of the Impossible" and Country of Opportunity

Some "creators" of the post-Soviet foreign policy even asked for help from their Washington colleagues in determining Russian priorities convenient for the West, a correspondent for The Moscow Post reports.

Thirty years later, Vladimir Putin said, speaking at a plenary session, PMEF-2022: "Truly sovereign states are always aimed at equal partnership. We will expand engagement with those who are interested in it.' It was in an equal partnership that Russia was refused. The gap was brewing, and in the West it was purposefully preparing. The ultimate goals were announced by temporarily "resting" politicians, like Victoria Nuland, for example.

"Ukraine is exactly what the United States should not give to Putin," Nuland wrote back in June 2020 in Foreign Affairs magazine. For Moscow, "the path to improving relations with all NATO and EU countries passes through Ukraine," she said, proposing to create permanent bases along NATO's eastern border, to conduct joint exercises more often and more noticeably, and insist on targeted military investments by NATO member countries.

Conditions for a political conflict were created, only a reason was needed. "Grown" for thirty years, Ukraine gave it, resuming the massive shelling of Donbass. Old Europe, under the auspices of NATO, rejuvenated by the Baltic neighbors, decided to confict, while by the hands of Kyiv. Visits to Kyiv by the British prime minister and the three Euroleaders with their calls for the Kyiv authorities to "win," this confirms. The West does not spare money, weapons and mercenaries. The gap in relations with Russia is deepening.

At a forum in St. Petersburg, the Russian business elite tried to decide on approaches to the development of Russia in the context of severing ties with the West. German Gref mentioned the "strategy of the impossible" during a Sberbank business breakfast, where issues of building an "economic bridge to the future" were discussed. The event showed that the Western tradition of combining coffee, scrambled eggs and smart conversations had caught on.

"I recently read the book Strategy of the Impossible," Gref said, saying "we have no other way today," that the key quality of any executive is optimism.

"Pipe to the East"

Energy resources of the Russian Federation are the most significant part of the chains of division of labor. According to German Gref, 73% of Russian oil exports in March-May went to countries that did not impose sanctions, and sanctions countries, which previously provided 56% and 51% of Russian import exports, respectively, in the new conditions became the main sources of risks to the economy. But everything is not so clear-cut.

After Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences and President of IMEMO Alexander Dynkin gave the floor to the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin, the discussion participants finally realized that Europe was committing "energy suicide" with its sanctions with consequences for the prospects for its competitiveness, not to mention direct losses of investors.

Meanwhile, representatives of China and India, speaking at the PMEF-2022, confirmed that energy cooperation and the security of energy supplies are very important for market participants. Oil and gas continue to play a key role in the economy, and geopolitical tensions are a challenge to global energy transition, said Dai Houlyan, chairman of the Board of Directors of the China National Oil and Gas Corporation (CNPC).

Oil and gas will remain the main energy carriers for the time being, supported the Chinese counterpart Alok Kumar Gupta, chief executive officer of the Indian oil state-owned company ONGC Videsh. It was clear to him, like other participants in the discussion on energy issues organized by Rosneft, that for China and India the forced U-turn of the Russian "hydrocarbon pipe" away from Europe significantly strengthens the positions of Beijing and New Delhi.

After the 2014 recession, oil and gas companies reduced investments in exploration, development and production, as a result, the supply of hydrocarbons decreased, there was an imbalance between supply and demand, which caused prices to rise, increased inflation, Gupta stated and called for cooperation of all energy suppliers.

Reuters reported that in just two to three weeks in May-June, Russian coal supplies to India increased sixfold in value to $331 million, oil - more than thirty times to $2.22 billion compared to the same time last year. Sources say that India receives discounts of up to 30%.

The peak of difficulties for the oil and gas industry fell on March, now it has passed and the companies have adapted, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the SPIEF session. Russia will soon reach the level of oil production of 10.2 million barrels per day. Oil refining this year may amount to 250-260 million tons (with an optimal load of 280 million tons), but a decrease is possible in the future.

Long-term plans for the production of liquefied natural gas remain, Russia has already increased LNG supplies to Europe, and by 2035 will be able to produce from 100 to 140 million tons of liquefied gas annually, Novak said.

Europe's energy suicide...

Europe, having made well-known policy decisions, has become the region with the highest cost of energy in the world and will pay $400 billion more for oil and gas in 2022 than in 2021. Novak also named these figures, adding that most of the gas importers switched to payment in rubles.

Gas supplies are reduced due to technical reasons. Nord Stream 2 is not in demand. Transit through Ukraine is limited by half and continues only through the Suja station. Ukraine rejects applications for gas supply to the Vzdravovka measuring station. The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline fell under Russian restrictions. The volume of gas pumping through Nord Stream-1 decreased by two-thirds due to repair problems. Siemens Energy said the turbine after repairs at the Montreal plant was sanctioned by Canada. As a result, gas supplies fell to 67 million cubic meters per day with a plan of 167 million cubic meters.

Problems with the repair of turbines in Canada could result in a complete shutdown of the Nord Stream gas pipeline and a "disaster for Germany," said Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's Permanent Representative to the EU. Russia will determine the contour of a new type of world, said Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller during a speech at the PMEF-2022. "The paradigm is changing.... First they sold the gas, then they produced it. Our product is our rules. We don't play games that we didn't come up with rules for. "

… and Putin's Six Principles

The very design of Western sanctions, Vladimir Putin said, speaking at a plenary session of the PMEF-2022, was built on the false thesis of the vulnerability of the Russian economy.

The economic blitzkrieg ignored changes, the results of work on creating a sustainable macroeconomic structure, ensuring food security, the results of import substitution programs and creating its own payment system.

Sanctions restrictions have set many difficult tasks for Russia. But all this opens up new opportunities, is an incentive to build an economy with full, not partial, technological, production, personnel, scientific potential and sovereignty.

Among the six key principles on the basis of which Russia will develop, the Russian president put openness first. Russia will never follow the path of self-isolation and autarky, "said Vladimir Putin.

The second principle of long-term development is reliance on entrepreneurial freedoms. Development based on private business, creating a modern business environment in the regions.

The third principle is responsible and balanced macroeconomic policy. It was such a line that made it possible to withstand unprecedented sanction pressure.

The fourth principle of development is social justice, reducing poverty and inequality.

The fifth, the principle on which Russia builds economic policy, is the advanced development of infrastructure.

The sixth, cross-cutting principle of development is the achievement of real technological sovereignty, the creation of a holistic system of economic development, which, according to critical components, does not depend on foreign institutions.

The government will stimulate measures to build a new technological economy - technoeconomics. It will support education and adjust the operating parameters of industrial clusters. Projects in such clusters will receive a long-term affordable loan. A low level of conditionally constant taxes, including insurance premiums, will be ensured.

Sales of finished products of such enterprises will be subsidized to provide the market. Administration will be simplified, including a minimum or complete absence of checks. Tax and customs monitoring will be easy, mechanisms of guaranteed long-term demand for innovative products will work.

Vladimir Putin reiterated that "technological development is a cross-cutting direction that will determine not only the current decade, but also the entire 21st century."

Photo: KREMLIN.RU / https://rg.ru/