The concept is different today

The Foreign Policy Concept, written back in 2008, faces significant changes in Russia's relations with the collective West, including the United States, Europe and NATO, as well as Japan and South Korea. In the previous text, Moscow spoke in favor of "a political solution to the nuclear problem of the Korean Peninsula," was aimed at constructive relations with the Republic of Korea (RK), hoped for "relations of good neighborliness and creative partnership with Japan," the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports.

Stoltenberg in Asia

These hopes have not been tested by time. But the security interests of Russia's Far Eastern and Pacific borders have not gone away, and a new streak of tense relations with the Western coalition poses threats to both Russia and the entire Northeast Asian region.

In particular, occupied Japan, like Germany in Europe, has practically abandoned the remnants of pacifism and again aimed its poorly spent emotional and nationalist potential at China and North Korea. Russia for Tokyo also remains an old headache.

A symbol of change for the worse in the regional situation was the tense face of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who visited Seoul and Tokyo shortly before Sergei Lavrov spoke to Russian parliamentarians. Stoltenberg persuaded South Korea and Japan to be more active in the Ukrainian conflict. "The weapons delivered today can create conditions for a peaceful settlement tomorrow," he assured the interlocutors.

Having destroyed the European security space, the North Atlantic Alliance is ready to add problems to Northeast Asia, a region centered on the security interests of Russia and China, the divided Korean Peninsula, American military bases in Japan and South Korea, and the US fuss around Taiwan. Speaking in Seoul, Stoltenberg said that American extended deterrence "fulfills an important task" in the interests of Washington's allies against the backdrop of the actions of Russia, China and the DPRK.

Seoul pays for 'rooft'

According to Russian and Chinese diplomats, NATO's activity towards the countries of the Asia-Pacific region is an invasion of the zones of interest of regional players, primarily Russia and China. But the United States persistently offers Tokyo and Seoul to pay for patronage, while participating in the support of the Kyiv Nazis.

In particular, the collective West is increasing pressure on the Republic of Korea (RK), forcing Seoul to supply weapons to Ukraine. Last June, Kazakh President Yoon Seok-yol became the first South Korean president to attend the NATO summit, albeit with reservations that this does not mean Seoul's desire to join the alliance or transfer lethal weapons to Kyiv.

The defense industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan has become a major arms exporter. Arms exports in 2022 were twice as high as in 2021 and reached $15 billion. Seoul plans to be among the top five arms exporters by the end of the decade.

Something for this is being done by the United States, which has made a deal to buy artillery shells intended for Ukraine. Under its terms, Seoul will sell one hundred thousand 155-mm shells that will be transported to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A major arms contract was signed for Poland, including up to a thousand K2 tanks and about six hundred K-9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers. This will replace the equipment supplied by Warsaw to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"South Korean defense enterprises are waiting for an increase in orders due to foreign demand, especially given the military conflict in Ukraine," say some South Korean experts cited by The Wall Street Journal. Although they do not realize how this can affect relations with Russia. The participation of the Republic of Kazakhstan in international sanctions has already led to the fact that Moscow has included South Korea in the list of unfriendly states.

In relations with Beijing, you also have to dodge. Kazakh Foreign Minister Park Chin said that Seoul supports the "one China" policy, but added that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are necessary for the security and prosperity of the region. The conflict in the strait could also hurt the Korean Peninsula, primarily the economy of South Korea.

According to the Korean International Trade Association, Kazakhstan's exports to China in 2021 amounted to $162.9 billion and increased by 162 times over 30 years after the establishment of diplomatic relations. All exports have grown nine-fold over 30 years to $644.4 billion. In Seoul, there is talk of growing dependence on China.

In 2021, the trade turnover of Russia with the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to $29.9 billion, an increase of 52.4% compared to 2020. Kazakhstan's exports to Russia reached $13 billion, an increase of 81.4% over the year. The import was dominated by mineral products (TN VED codes 25-27) - 70.6% of the total import from Russia. Food and agricultural raw materials accounted for 14.6% of imports from the Russian Federation.

Japan is slipping into the past

In Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's smiling face did not smooth out the seriousness of the intentions of Tokyo and Brussels, these so far de facto partners. Using categorical formulations, the NATO Secretary General and the Prime Minister said that the SVO in Ukraine and the military cooperation of the Russian Federation with the PRC created the most tense security situation since World War II. They also promised to strengthen ties between NATO and Japan.

Japan will host the G-7 summit in May. Kisida, as they say, plans to visit Kyiv before this event. In December 2022, Japan unveiled plans to build defense capabilities, which drew approval from the United States and NATO.

Doubling the defense budget will make Japan the third country in the world in military spending after the United States and China. Strengthening cooperation with NATO in the field of security in the seas, weapons, space and cyberspace will make Japan a full-fledged link in the West's strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, the statement said. It is not surprising that actions will also follow from Russia, balancing new threats from the US-Japanese alliance.

Message to China

Stoltenberg told reporters that Russia's victory in Ukraine would embolden China, which strengthens its military by "intimidating neighbors and threatening Taiwan." He added: "Beijing is watching closely and learning lessons that could affect its future decisions. What is happening in Europe today may happen in East Asia tomorrow, "the NATO Secretary General predicted.

Any attempt by China to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait will cause "serious consequences" for regional and global security, Stoltenberg said in an interview with Nikkei Asia. NATO policy, he said, aims to deter Beijing from using military force.

The North Atlantic Alliance mentioned China in 2022 in its strategic concept, arguing that the country creates "systemic challenges" for the West. "China is not an adversary," Stoltenberg said, explaining that NATO members will continue to selectively interact with Beijing on arms control, climate change and other areas.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Stoltenberg-Kisida's statements, but said that China is a partner for the countries of the region, not a challenge, and that Beijing does not threaten the interests or security of any country. At the same time, Germany, and with it the EU, plan to tighten the policy towards the PRC in trade and technology, responding to the requirements of the United States and NATO policy.

Not looking back and trusting the West

Returning to the update of the Concept of Russian Foreign Policy, it should be noted that the part of it that applies to Asia, China, India, Vietnam and other ASEAN states, as well as the EAEU, SCO and APEC, may generally remain. It is only necessary to decide on the nuclear missile status of the DPRK.

The changes will affect Japan and the idea of ​ ​ "creative partnership," as well as South Korea, especially in the context of changes in the defense concepts of these two countries and their participation in the regional military plans of the United States, NATO and the new AUKUS bloc, which the Anglo-Saxons plan to give nuclear filling.

The G8 has gone into oblivion and the idea of ​ ​ partnership with the European Union, plans for collective security and cooperation "from Vancouver to Vladivostok." There are no more plans to build a pan-European legal space under the auspices of the Council of Europe. The timid movements of the IAEA in the context of the Ukrainian conflict and the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant by ukronakists call into question the UN's potential in the field of preventive anti-crisis measures. There are questions for the OSCE as a "forum of equal dialogue of states." The work of the Arctic Council has been suspended.

Russia, and together with the country and its foreign policy, have already taken the first steps towards partners who can be trusted, ready to discuss ideas and plans free from the influence of the West. Moscow's relations with Beijing are now the best in history, Sergei Lavrov said, speaking at a meeting of the commission of the General Council of the United Russia party. The Minister noted that in parallel, "relations of a particularly privileged strategic partnership with India are progressively and very vigorously developing."

But the reality is that the long-standing conflicts in Asia remain, new threats appear and the Russian Far East will continue to strengthen its role as an outpost of the country on the Pacific borders.

Photo: Center for Military-Political Studies