USA at a crossroads, everything collapses not only there

Donald Trump spoke with Viktor Orban, who visited Ukraine, Russia and China. The assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania and the Republican Party congress in Milwaukee, where he was approved as a presidential candidate. How is all this connected and what can it mean for Russia's interests?

Donald Trump's popularity has grown. Democrats changed their minds to change Joe Biden as their presidential candidate. Everything changes, in some places it collapses, in some places there are glimmers of hope. But the dramatic events of recent days in the United States can hardly significantly affect the presidential election, except for the fluctuating states. This opinion is shared by some American experts.

Others believe that Trump is very likely to become the next US president. Provided that he lives to see the elections. The attempted assassination of him in Pennsylvania posed three questions related to the justice system and US law enforcement.

Judging by the responses on social networks to the attempt to kill Trump, some US residents are disappointed that the attempt failed. Among them or nearby there are still singles and groups ready to "restore justice." As in some Hollywood tapes: "when the accused leaves the courtroom".

For many citizens, Trump is a criminal. Although a federal court in the Southern District of Florida has dismissed a case alleging his illegal possession of classified documents, other cases remain open. Trump faced a total of 91 charges in four criminal cases. The most difficult articles threaten him with 20 years in prison. If the punishment is determined by the method of adding up the terms, then he will definitely not get out of prison.

This is the first. The second problem is related to the ability of Trump's guards to reliably protect him. The Secret Service tightened its guard until the end of the election campaign, but its actions at a rally in Pennsylvania called into question the professionalism of both bodyguards and local police officers.

Third, there was suspicion that Trump's security detail at the Butler rally included traitors. They deliberately could create gaps in the security perimeter that allowed the shooter to make a targeted shot. This is the opinion of the former American army officer Stanislav Krapivnik. "The shot was fired from 150 meters. According to the laws of sniper shooting, this is practically point blank", he said.

If Trump is president?

Those voters who will vote for Trump are hoping for the best. What can his election mean for Russia's interests, for a settlement in Ukraine?

On the way to his second term, Trump is already influencing the situation. He wrote on Truth Social: "Need peace, and fast. Too many people died in a war that should not have started at all, "he said. He also said that "if he were president", then there would be no conflict. So Trump commented on the publication of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

As a result of meetings in Moscow, Beijing, as well as with Trump, the Hungarian prime minister intends to strengthen his position. Perhaps he can influence the policy of EU bureaucrats. For Trump's election agenda to stop the war and stop squandering taxpayer money is tempting, too. The main thing is that this goes against what Biden is doing, and also undermines the position of the euro bureaucracy, which Trump is afraid of and hates, which he knows about.

If he is elected, then the chances of success for Orban's diplomacy could grow. And in general, it is important for him to be a confidant of the US president in European showdowns. Orban has already called on his Euro neighbors to restore relations with Russia. He wrote a letter to the President of the European Council Charles Michel, setting out the content of the final meeting with Trump. Brussels decided to ignore Orban and Hungary, but the European Union (EU) has something to think about.

Especially when you consider that the Republican Party has confirmed Trump as a candidate in the presidential election. Moreover, Trump named a candidate for vice president. It was Ohio Senator James D. Vance. This once again showed that for Trump, the war in Ukraine is Biden's sins and Europe's area of ​ ​responsibility! "Vance is a shock to Ukraine and the EU", Politico said.

He played a central role in efforts to derail the Ukraine aid bill earlier this year in the Senate.

What can Poland...

In the matter of resolving the crisis, it will not be possible to bypass Poland. Before meeting with Trump, Orban traveled to Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing. He certainly lacked Warsaw on that list. Many consider Poland the crystallization point of crises in Europe. And what the West is doing in Ukraine today is happening with the active participation of the Polish political elite.

At the end of February, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Warsaw did not plan to send its troops to Ukraine. But Poland took on the role of the main transit of weapons and ammunition at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Warsaw did not skimp on the transfer of its weapons, which was outdated and required replacement, but not only. Poland provided Zelensky with all kinds of political support, accepted refugees and immigrants. The number of local volunteers and mercenaries who died on the battlefields surpasses the losses of other NATO countries involved in the conflict.

Warsaw itself has embarked on a course to rearm and build up its army, and intends to bring the military budget to 4% of GDP. The Republic of Korea has become the main supplier of weapons today. At the beginning of 2024, the law on mobilization came into force, according to which the summons can come with the note "appear immediately". Whoever evades will answer to the authorities.

All this "activity" reflects the desire of Poland's leaders to push the Germans they hated from the first roles in Europe and become the main NATO striking force on the borders of the former Soviet Union. These plans and actions are densely implicated in the Russophobic psychology of the ruling elite, dependent on London and Washington.

Russia does not exclude that the Anglo-Saxons can deliberately prepare Poland for war. At the same time, do not risk it yourself, officially leave NATO forces in the rear to support Poland. It cannot be ruled out that Warsaw can take on the role of "Ukraine 2.0". Former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Belarus Ruslan Kosygin writes that the EU plans to prepare for an attack on Belarus and Russia by 2027. Only at the Belarusian border, according to him, a group of 11 thousand American troops has been deployed.

... what does Warsaw do...

Zelensky has already signed a bilateral security agreement with Tusk, hoping that Polish air defenses will shoot down Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace. Although the NATO Secretary General still rejects this idea, the alliance will continue to help Kyiv, including the supply of air defense systems. And there, who knows? It all started with helmets, body armor and small arms.

Kyiv expects that Poland will cover the border strip for as long as the Polish air defense is enough, and fighters can be kept in this strip. For Donald Tusk, this security agreement means leadership, points earned in Washington and London, and a symbol of Euro solidarity.

Poland and the Baltic countries more actively support the slogan "defeat Russia." Estonia, for example, is developing a "drone wall" project to protect its airspace, preparing to spend 1.3 billion euros on ammunition and kamikaze drones, long-range artillery, HIMARS systems and medium-range air defense systems. In 2025, concrete bunkers will be built on the borders with Russia, mines will be laid and anti-tank ditches will be dug.

In the final declaration of the NATO anniversary summit, the leaders of the alliance countries promised to support Ukraine "on an irreversible path to complete Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership". For the Anglo-Saxons, Paris and Germany, this can be "insurance" in the confrontation with Moscow and Minsk. For Poland and Romania, this "membership" looks different. They will be put at the forefront with all the risks, costs and losses that follow from this.

One of the elements of the agreement on cooperation in the field of security was "the creation and training of the Ukrainian legion in Poland". The unit plans to recruit mercenaries, including among the inhabitants of Poland, who are not averse to earning extra money in the war. The creation of such a legion is an attempt by the United States to further draw Poland into the war with Russia, writes Niezależny Dziennik Polityczny.

... and what are they talking about in Poland?

But there are nuances. In relations between Warsaw and Kyiv, the memory of the "Volyn massacre" has not gone anywhere, as well as Warsaw's desire to regain "its southeast", today the Ukrainian northwest. Poles may find themselves in Western Ukraine on their own initiative, or as allies of Kyiv. Troops can be brought into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting the population of the western regions and without the consent of Kyiv, writes Alexander Khramchikhin.

Some representatives of the right believe that Poland should get closer to Russia on the basis of the ideology of "protecting traditional values".

Hungary and Slovakia seem to be making their choice. But the Russophobia of the Polish elites is still stronger. Ordinary citizens are aware that they are being drawn into a big war and have supported Orban's recent peacekeeping initiatives.

In the EU, Orban's visits to Moscow, Beijing and Washington provoked a nervous reaction. The ruling elite of Poland reacted in a similar way at the level of the "Civil Platform" led by Donald Tusk and Euro-deputy Andrzej Galicki. Many disagree with them, according to the local press in their publications.

There was a gap between the position of the ruling "elite" and the mood of ordinary residents. The same processes are observed throughout Europe, where "would like negotiations", where "more pigeons than hawks", writes Tamas Orban on the portal The European Conservative, commenting on a survey conducted in 15 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

NATO is faced with the task of exhausting Russia to the limit, improving the conditions for negotiations for Kyiv. Thinking about the conflict with Russia should be in the horizon of several years, said the head of the Polish National Security Bureau Jacek Sivera.

He believes that "with the proper determination of the allies and the provision of the necessary resources, such a scenario [return to the 1991 borders] is not excluded, but in the future," Sivera said and added: "Due to the geographical position of Ukraine, it is extremely difficult for Russia to wage war with the West without capturing this country. Therefore, the question of [Ukraine's] membership in NATO is existential for the West".

... when everything collapses

The NATO anniversary summit was exclusively anti-Russian. Ukraine was promised long-term assistance. Diplomacy was not mentioned at all. All hopes are pinned on the "victory" of Kyiv, but the content of the term itself becomes elastic. It is recognized that it is unrealistic for Ukraine to return the territory, it is necessary to get advantageous positions for negotiations.

But the situation is changing rapidly. A Democratic member of the House of Representatives said that after the assassination attempt on Trump, Democratic lawmakers in Congress resigned themselves to the prospect of his victory. Trump, in this case, intends to discuss with Moscow and Kyiv the settlement of the crisis, in order to then focus on China. This was stated by the US vice presidential candidate from the Republican Party, Senator from Ohio James D. Vance.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban confirmed that if he wins, Trump will be ready to take on the role of mediator for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. According to him, the victory of the ex-president of the United States in the elections will cost the European Union dearly. The Kremlin claims that Trump is ready to mediate in the Ukrainian settlement so far to the category of speculation.

Be that as it may, but Russia again involuntarily "intervened" in the election race on the side of Trump. In the photo, where his wounded is closed and taken away by bodyguards, a young woman is in the foreground. Someone suggested that she was from Ryazan, where she was engaged in karate. And although these rumors were not confirmed, the residents of Ryazan could be pleased. Their countrywoman put her shoulder to Trump!